Running A Muskoka Antique Shop In A Recession and Surviving

RECESSION OR NOT, WHO SHOULD WE BELIEVE?

AND WILL THERE BE A HOUSING MELT-DOWN COMING IN THE NEAR FUTURE?

     This is an opinion piece I'd like to share, not for my own gratification, because there's none of that attached here. It's as much a warning from a recession survivor, who was more vulnerable than most others in the same situation. I put our family at great risk by opening an antique business at possibly the worse time in history, except had I been around to do so in 1929, ahead of the Great Depression.
     In the business realm, our family has taken our antique enterprise through a number of high impact, high risk recessions that claimed the shops of our colleagues. We watched as better anchored, better financed retailers lost their businesses due to economic downturns. We watched as a dozen folks each week, sometimes double this, came into our Bracebridge shop, during the years of recession in the early 1990's, with items to sell. Not because they were down sizing, as is usually the explanation, when we get older folks coming in with collectables and home furnishings to sell. On these occasions, the items being offered for sale, were to help offset their living costs, from insurance, taxes, car and home repairs, and even to offset dental and health care costs not covered by insurance. It was terribly embarrassing for them and for us, considering we weren't able to help more than a tenth of those who wanted us to buy their heirloom items. And yes, a lot of them were prized personal items from parents and grandparents, and it's also true we lost a lot of money ourselves, by not buying these quality pieces. We needed to pay our business and household expenses, and put food on the table. We know what kind of commitment it takes, to head into the storm, and although we're a little too old to take on yet another major recession, main streeting it, I think that instead of watching it hit, we can now look out and know it's upon us as a slow moving economic disturbance. As far as running for cover, or making a last ditch attempt to mitigate risk, we feel a little more confident this time, because we began preparing for a downturn two years ago. That's when we began changing-over our former antique dominated inventory, to instead, shift toward a more functional, affordable, durable, reliable, home economics-themed shop, with emphasis on wares that are kitchen-ready, and will last for decades to come because of the way they were manufactured. These useable cookware and preparation pieces from Corning-ware casserole dishes, to Pyrex mixing bowls, and other kitchen collectables that are great to decorate with, but are also functional.
     Suzanne is making inventory behind the counter, by knitting socks, mitts, fingerless gloves, and sewing together tote bags and purses with fabric remnants she picks up at various sales we attend. She sold her first funky tote bag today to a happy customer, taking it back to Western Canada.
     Point is, times are going to get tough, and we can't wait for the government to let us know just how bad it's going to get, because they're follying with propaganda, so as not to lose them votes in the upcoming federal election. I think the public's right to know trumps how the governing party looks when it comes its collective hair each morning. We deserve the truth. Not a deluded opinion all is right, when we can clearly see, it's nothing of the sort.
     Even the occasional golfer knows it's necessary, a time-honored tradition in fact, to yell out "fore" if they should happen to slice the ball, or over-hit, and it appears the projectile is headed for other players on or off the course. It's to give them warning to duck and cover their heads, in case of a direct hit. Warnings are sensible hedges against injury. Maybe some consider warnings to be fear mongering, but that's a matter of opinion. Most would prefer offering a warning, versus living with the fact they injured someone, because they didn't want to make a fuss by yelling "fore." Now if our federal government was performing its due diligence in this regard, they would be worrying less about their handsome reflection in the mirror, and more about vulnerable Canadians, who have nose-bleed-high mortgages, and could soon be facing a real estate correction of major proportion, that could prove injurious in ways they probably couldn't have imagined.
     In 1989, when I told my mother and father we had borrowed $105,000 to finance our present home, here in Gravenhurst, they sat their, with gaping mouths, wondering what madness have prevailed upon their son and daughter-in-law, to gamble away their futures on, of all things, real estate. Outside of furnishings and general household wares, and a car on a monthly payment plan, Merle and Ed never owned much of anything that would rise dramatically in value, or drop like a stone if the market slumped. They never wanted to own a house, and were content to rent a variety of apartments, and one cottage, on a lark, for three years back in the late mid 1970's. They had a genuine fear, that one day, the poop was going to hit the fiscal fan, and all those who had bet the family farm, on real estate escalating forever and a day, would lose their investments and retire instead to cardboard boxes in select locations all over the towns and cities of Canada. And well, when the recession of the late 1980's and early 90's swept across the economic landscape, gosh, we were right in the middle of the cyclone of bad, bad and getting worse news. We lost thirty thousand dollars of real estate value in a year, and even then, it probably would have been much worse, if we had actually entertained offers, from a host of low-balling sharks looking for bargains. The only thing that saved us, was the fact the bank never came back at us, wanting more money for the downpayment, based on the devaluation of their investment in our property. If they had wanted to re-secure their mortgage to us, and requested additional financial information, they would have also discovered that the three jobs I had in 1989, before inking the deal, had dried-up, and we had just spent twenty thousand dollars upgrading the house and improving the driveway. We had an antique shop, but it wasn't all that profitable at the time, as recessions hit our trade twice as hard, and as a little bonus for our worries, Suzanne was in a car accident with a vehicle we had just purchased; and after being repaired, never worked right again. We were about as tapped-out as you could get, and still be able to afford gas to drive to work; and put food on the table. Bills were placed into a monthly lottery, and the ones picked out of the hat, were paid, while those remaining, had to wait a little longer to be covered. It was awful, and the exception, I think, was the fact Suzanne and I pulled closer together, to protect our young family, and because of our pioneer period affections, we started to change our entire economic character.
    Suzanne, a home economist / teacher, by profession, and her historian husband, turned the clock back a hundred years plus, and immediately began cutting expenses, and making-do, just like our grand parents and great grandparents had coped with lean times. It hurt at first, because we had been, as they say, high flyers for quite a few years. I was editor of one of the region's most historic newspapers, with Muskoka Publications, and Suzanne was a Family Studies teacher at Bracebridge High School, and together we ran Woodchester Villa and Museum. I also did voicers each week for CHAY FM.
     What I worry about at present, not so much for us, but for young people in particular, is that the $105,000 mortgage that we thought was huge, in 1989, is miniscule, in comparison to some of the unwieldy amounts being carried by young families at present, with precariously balanced employment income. Like being hit in the face by a cyclone, everything gets turned around, so quickly, and profoundly, that "the new normal," takes effect almost immediately, even before you've had a chance to figure out what just passed overhead. We found out that the banks who loaned us this money, are always alert to these hugely destructive changes in the economic climate; and expect borrowers to be just as savvy, about how to adjust to new economic situations. They didn't strike us as the folks who wanted our excuses, why we couldn't pay the monthly mortgage installment, and certainly had no particular interest in the "mercy rule," as an act of humanity, on those who were facing mountains of debt, that in many ways, the banks had facilitated with easy access loans. This was the scenario in 1989. My God, think of the personal debt-load today, that economists have been warning about for the past decade, with little change other than the trend is still to spend what we don't have, on what we don't need. Everything hinges on employment staying as it is, when in fact, what we should all be recognizing, with this latest news of the impending federal deficit, the slumping price of oil, and the diminishing old loonie, that jobs are most definitely going to be lost down the road, and that's going to pound the housing market, that despite what the vested interest claims otherwise, is frothing like an old mule at the empty water trough. There are many damning lies being told out there, for political party welfare. Truths that should be given to Canadian citizens, who, if warned in a timely fashion, might be able to straighten out their fiscal problems, before being hit by the whirlwind of economic change; that operates on its own investor driven momentum, where the little guys and their suffering, are just the collateral damage of the capitalist market in free-fall. If you drink the nectar of good times, then you must pay for the privilege, by sucking-it-up during economic calamity. But this time, the fall is a lot further for millions upon millions of homeowners, who live pay cheque to pay cheque, and couldn't maintain their mortgage payments for more than a month or two, if they lost their jobs. We saw this happen less than a decade ago in the United States, and it's looking like we're going to face it in the contemporary sense, if worse comes to worse, as it is certainly appearing, an imminent potential over the coming twelve months.
     Suzanne and I think of ourselves as survivors of the real estate meltdown of the 1990's. How vile was it? Well, folks, it took until the early years of 2000, to regain the value diminished, from the losses of the early 90's. I remember hearing a young economist, commenting on the state of the economy, as part of a panel of experts, back in 1987, as being the only one of four in the group, to accurately predict the next greatest economic downturn; almost to the year and month he predicted, the poop hit the proverbial fan, and selling houses became next to impossible. I talked about it with Suzanne, and we kept the issue on the front burner for the next year. Then we let ourselves live the good life, and it nearly cost us our home, car, and earthly possessions. If I get a little nervous when the storm clouds appear to be mounting on the far horizon, rest assured, I know what it means in real, family, daily living, household terms. If you were to listen to the federal government now, you would say those gathering black clouds, representative of a coming storm, are just illusions of an over-active imagination, even if they are seen by many millions of astute, frugal Canadians, who don't trust the vested interest, wherever that may be, to tell us the truth, as we deserve it! Instead, they're more concerned about their political party's chances of winning the next election. I'd be willing to vote for them if they told us the truth about how bad it is, in all quarters, and what our odds of being swept up, will be, should the storm move overtop this failing national economy. Isn't that what the government is supposed to to for its citizenry in this great democracy. A warning today, issued to all Canadians, about future financial perils, may be negative in connotation, but insightfully positive, in giving vulnerable Canadians a head start advantage, trying to prepare for what seems inevitably "recessionary" times.
     Whether the governing Tories want to admit it or not, the faltering economy will be the number one topic of debate, during the upcoming federal election campaign. The Tories, as if the script is already prepared, will deny there's a problem, and vehemently argue, that it is nothing more than fear mongering, of the opposition parties, to claim otherwise. From experience, of having nearly lost our home, in a previous recession, if we had paid strict attention to the young economist, who predicted the near catastrophic downturn, we would have had almost two years to follow the straight and narrow of budget restriction to batten down the hatches. And yes, following his advice, we wouldn't have re-purchased another house, after making considerable money selling our existing house; opting instead to rent a house or apartment until the tide began to recede. We wouldn't have bought another car, and had our existing vehicle upgraded. We would have eased spending, and cut our travel budget in half, and taken camping vacations instead of staying at hotels and dining at restaurants, whenever we hit the road for a week or two. I'm willing to bet, that many other Canadians, having the benefit of a government issued "head's up," would have heeded the advice, and toned down on extravagances, and got their financial houses in order, as they say.
     It would be interesting to re-visit the issue of the real-estate bubble, that burst during that earlier recession, and just how long we had, before it was fact, beyond the bold front page headlines in national dailies. How much actual time would a homeowner have, in which to shore-up finances, suspecting that a real estate melt-down was coming down the pike, and potentially, killing jobs along the way. It is what I expect of the governments of all levels; to be honest with us, about the conditions that might soon harm us, if precautions aren't taken. They have a new bad weather alert, on television and radio now, to advise us to take cover, due to an imminent damaging storm approaching. Why can't we have something, a little toned-down, that tips us off, the government itself, wants to warn us about a condition that could seriously impact our well being. The constant denial stuff, by our federal government, is pretty ridiculous, when international economic authorities, financial advisory groups and major banks, and the economic statistics, are together, sounding the alarm, to prepare for the worse. If Canadians were to heed such a warning, what could be done in six months of hurry-up offence? A year? Two years? If the government knows how truly bad it is, and doesn't tell us, and we get burned as a direct result, how should they be held to account? Well, you see, that's why they couldn't care less about being thusly forthcoming, because there is no consequence for them, other than the weight of conscience; and I think that would be feather-light if all the other precedents are factored in, to what actually makes a politician feel responsible for distorting the truth, we need to know.
     Even the very best, more aggressive efforts of propaganda, will not change the fact a crayon is purple, black, red, yellow, or brown. It doesn't matter what the Tory propaganda machine spits out, to the contrary, they can not change what is deeply entrenched; and they certainly can't change what's happening to the price of oil, despite the spin they put on the issue, to make it look like a good thing, that we are testing the rest of the economy, to see how it can infill, for what income we've lost the result of the world marketplace.
     When the economic downturn unfurls its negatives upon us, many up-to-speed citizens of this country, will have made back-up plans to ensure cash reserve, cash flow, and that respective debt has been mitigated. They have a fighting chance to survive. For those who most need a helping hand, and encouragement, to adopt to a more frugal lifestyle, they will, most likely, as has happened many times before, be the unspoken-of collateral damage; muted by positive spin, for the sake of the government, feeling it needs to fob-off responsibility elsewhere, to protect their image as our protectors. The world's protector. Failing the citizens of this country, by continually denying what is obvious, and the hardcore reality behind the growing deficit, (that can be learned by reading a newspaper or watching the evening news) means to me, they don't give a crap what happens to us, or that millions could lose their homes, if there is a real estate collapse. There's something so fundamentally wrong, with this government's attitude, regarding our basic rights and freedoms, one being, to know the truth about the mess we're in, before we suffer the consequences of their fixation with image. I don't think they have anything to worry about, as far as tarnished reputation. They can't fix the damage they've done in only a couple of months electioneering.
     It's time to watch the sky, and the government coffers. The time to pay bills, and set aside a good rainy day fund, for all eventualities. It's time to be realistic, to counter a government that feels it's better to keep citizens in the limbo of propaganda, so as not to mess up the chances of re-election. This is not what our government should be doing for us, and the reason they should be removed.