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| Oil Painting of St. Peters Anglican Church on the Fraserburg Road in Bracebridge by Muskoka artist, Joy Milburn |
NEW YEARS IN MUSKOKA - WHAT HAVE WE GOT TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2015?
WILL WE BE HURT BY FALLING OIL PRICES, OR PROFIT FROM LOW GAS AND A LOW DOLLAR? WHAT ABOUT THOSE RUSSIANS
The weather reminds me of a winter in England or Scotland, more so than a Canadian winter. The only thing I'm worried about, is getting some back to back minus 20 and 30 days, which we expect from the month of January, that without snow insulation on the ground, could freeze some waterlines; even municipal water services. I can remember, back in the 1980's, when, during a snowless stretch, several blocks of homes on Wellington Street in Bracebridge, had to be supplied with water with heated, above ground hoses. We really don't know if this can happen, because we have had very few winters without a substantial layer of snow, when it drops well below freezing. The snow makes for pretty good insulation for septic tanks and lines, and for waterlines from wells. I've had this happen at a house we were living in, on Golden Beach Road, and with two youngsters and lots of laundry every day, it was a nightmare to be suddenly thrust back into pioneer living. Yes, I'm hoping for snow, because the same thing can happen today, without a good amount of snow to keep the ground insulated.
It has been a busy Saturday in the shop, with most of our visitors coming from out of town. Half of these, were here visiting with Muskoka relatives, and the other half, were on their way to visit relatives north, west and east of Gravenhurst, but decided to stop for lunch, and to check out the local fare. We do keep track of where our customers are coming from, by asking them outright, and no one has objected to the questioning yet. It's our way of doing a first-person survey, where there is no manipulation of the statistics by anyone else. We've had a shortage of our local customers in this past week, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. Only ten percent of our business revenue, comes from local residents. It's up from seven percent when we first opened the antique component of the family business. Thus, we couldn't remain open, without the support of out-of-towners making up the difference. The music component, operated by sons Robert and Andrew, are probably closer to 25 percent local residents, in terms of business revenue, but then proportionally, they've been here four times as long, to achieve this number attesting to Gravenhurst support. Many of the antique shop customers do come from Bracebridge and Muskoka Lakes, and from Orillia and Barrie. We're happy with this off-season increase in tourism; and we consider folks from nearby communities as tourist day travelers. It's looking to be a good New Year's stretch, if the weather doesn't become stormy all of a sudden.
The art panel published above today's blog, was painted by Muskoka artist, Joy Milburn, depicting the well known log structure of St. Peter's Anglican Church, on Bracebridge's Fraserburg Road. The historic little church, was constructed, in part, because of the death-bed request of former pioneer resident, known only as "Granny Bowers," who lived alone, a short distance away from the knob of hill, where the log church sits today. I'm not sure, but I think Granny Bowers instructed the Cowley Fathers, of the Society of St. John the Evangelist, to use the materials from her house, after her death, to construct a little Anglican Church for the folks on the Fraserburg Road. It is a wonderful heritage building, and I have been inside many times, since I first started visiting the site, as a youngster.
It was around this time of December, on the cusp of New Years, that this little log church changed my life. Not because of a religious intervention, the words of the minister, or any particular inspiration from a normal Sunday service. It was the reflection of an ass, I saw in one of the windows, that had a profound impact on my social excesses. It happened on a Sunday afternoon in late December, when I came home from a morning of recreational league hockey, having consumed a lot of booze in the locker room. Here it was, not even one o'clock on a family Sunday, and I was dangerously pickled. I was drinking with the local business and professional elite, who made up the players on the four teams in the league. It was a pre-New Year's celebration, I suppose, because there was a lot of drink in the dressing rooms on that day. I had a good sampling. Like many others that Sunday, I thought nothing of getting into the car, and driving to our house, which was then on Ontario Street, just below the High School. I don't remember doing this, but this is the problem associated with drinking way too much, for too long. The blacking-out part.
I was, at this time, still editor of The Herald-Gazette, and I know for fact, I would have been fired if I had been caught driving while impaired. Seeing as our paper reported on others, who were charged with the same infraction, I'm confident our publisher wouldn't have been unable to avoid disciplining his editor. It didn't seem to matter. I took chances regardless. And the fact, that with my drunken behaviour, I was seriously hurting my wife Suzanne, and the future of our first son, Andrew, I don't think my situation could have been much more precarious and threatening.
I came home from my recreational and social pursuit that afternoon, intent on taking Suzanne and Andrew for a ride in the car. I can only suggest, that if I had been stopped, by the Ontario Provincial Police, I would likely have blown three times the legal limit. I knew this intimately well, because every Christmas season, we used to publish a feature story in the newspaper, about the RIDE Spot Check program, and what constituted driving over the limit. We even volunteered for a sobriety text, drinking over several hours, and then blowing in the breathalizer machine to measure our level of alcohol intake. There was no excuse for me to have climbed into a car drunk, with what I knew of the legal limits, and the consequences of over indulgence. First of all, potentially losing my job, and secondly, possibly killing someone, even my own family in a car wreck. I had lost control of my senses of propriety. My closest friends were just as bad, and took the same kind of risks every time they went to a tavern or hockey tournament, where booze was the reward for a good game, or a day's work.
On this particular Sunday, I remember standing outside St. Peter's Church, trying to look through the windows. I remember half-leaning on the timbers of the pioneer church, and seeing this fellow looking back at me through the window. I recognized him, but it did startle me at first. What was most troubling of all, was that the man looking back through the glass, was none other than me. I had not initially recognized my own image. When Suzanne came around the corner of the church, carrying wee Andrew, I wasn't sure, at that moment, who they were either. I finally adjusted to my surroundings, and when I asked Suzanne who brought us to the church, she had a look of outright fear on her face, realizing for the first time, I was not only a heavy drinker but an outright liar. She knew then, just how seriously drunk I was, because I had no knowledge of having driven to the site in the first place. I looked at Suzanne and Andrew and felt nauseous, not because of the booze swirling in my stomach, but because I had endangered their lives by drinking and then driving. The fact that I hadn't even recognized my own reflection, meant that I had blacked-out for a time, something common to alcohol consumption over a long time. So here I was, a giant ass of asses, standing at a Muskoka Church, wondering how I could have done something so dangerous and wickedly stupid to my young family.
I swore off booze that afternoon, in the shadow of the little log church, that was inspired by Granny Bower's deathbed wish; I had been given another chance, and I took it with a great all encompassing embrace. I don't want to send the wrong message out there, that I was an alcoholic and then fell off the wagon. As I stopped on my own accord, and suffered no ill effects from withdrawal, I decided after a lengthy hiatus, that I could have a social drink, now and again, but only if Suzanne was at my side, to stop any excesses. As our marriage very much hinges on this conservative, mild approach to social drinking, I won't trip up. My hiatus hernia, which always acts up if I have more than two beer, or two glasses of wine, will by itself, guarantees I will never return to the bad habits of my youth. I was booze free for more than a decade. I do enjoy the occasional imported beer, especially at Christmas, and a glass of wine at New Years, but never enough to get even mildly tipsy. From that incident at St. Peter's Anglican Church, I have never again driven, while under the influence. If I've had a sip of booze, I stay home. I don't drink anywhere else these days, and I haven't visited a tavern in this region, since my hockey days of the 1980's. Apparently, my church window reflection, that day, had taught me a valuable lesson; on how not to be a drunken ass.
I found this painting in the store bookroom this morning, and it brought back this rather poignant memory, of a major change in my life for the better, inspired no less, by a trip to this pioneer Anglican Church on a Sunday during the Christmas season. There are all kind of ironies attached here, that aren't lost on me.
As a reporter, I attended plenty of accident scenes in this region, that were the direct result of drinking and driving. There's something profoundly awful, seeing a body protruding from an orange tarp, and seeing broken bottles of beer and whiskey at the side of the crumpled car or truck. I should have never have required any one to tell me about the dangers of drinking and driving. I can't explain my actions, only the reaction, and it was positive.
Well down list of top stories of the day, last evening, the CTV nightly news, reported on what should have been, without question, the most critically important news of the broadcast. Most important of the past month. Not behind anything else! News of Russia declaring, via a government Manifesto, that NATO is now its major security threat, in their neighborhood of Europe, and that if it comes down to defending their nation, and their interests, the big, big bombs could be unleashed in retaliation. Have we heard so many of these threats, that we become complacent when they a issued anew? There was a day, when that kind of talk would have inspired some of us Canadians to start digging fall out shelters. Now it is almost feature news. A sort of "by the way," news story barely making the grade to be included at all.
Nuclear threats, when they come from North Korea, aren't all that uncommon or even troublesome anymore. From Russia, however, even using the word, "nuclear," and "weaponry," should scare the bejesus out of us all. It's odd, don't you think, that a story of this political and international magnitude, and representative danger, would be buried in a news cast, like a story tucked into an obscure pocket of open space, between the ads, on page 12, of a daily newspaper. This is an example of minimization of what should be front and center, for public consumption, but has somehow become less significant news as seen by some editors. Russia is now overviewed apparently, by some news gathering agencies, as a lesser concern than it was, say, during the Cold War, for one, and secondly, the fact that following the Olympics this year, they decided to stir up some crap in The Ukraine. The matter of falling oil prices isn't good for Canada as a nation, and it certainly isn't an economic boon to Russia, beating their economy to a pulp. The stresses of international economic sanctions, as well, is tightening the noose, as was intended by the international community, but there's still a pretty dire outcome possible, if Russia decides to push back at NATO in any number of ways. What has been happening in The Ukraine has been provocative to the highest level, and while it's good to know NATO Forces are standing guard for Europe, we still have to be aware that the Cuban Missile Crisis could have gone either way; as many suspected it would end badly; preparing for a nuclear war. We knew people in Burlington at the time of the Crisis, who paid to have bomb shelters built on their properties. I think it was pretty serious stuff, back then, although I was still pretty young to know exactly what nuclear meant, in terms of armaments, and how they could be deployed to hurt us.
Russia is facing a bleak economic future and there are frightening parallels, of what political conditions led up to the commencement of the Second World War. Economic strife has caused many world calamities, and international historians must be getting pensive these days, thinking about the possibilities there won't be a soft landing here. Did Russia just threaten the world with nuclear war? Or did they just want to remind us, as a post-Christmas message, what persuasion they still have tucked in silos, just in case the political sparring was to intensify, such that they would feel justified to unleash the hounds so to speak. Not the best news to carry forth into the new year, but let's face it, we had to know it was coming down the pike. It does tend to get crowded out with other world turmoil, such as in Iraq and Syria. The Russians may just be posturing once again, but it's the kind of positioning and maybe even theatrics, that you have to take seriously, or come, suddenly, one dark day, to face some pretty mind blowing consequences.
The invasion of the eastern region of Ukraine, and last year's casual borrowing of The Crimea, by pro-Russians, and the downing of a passenger aircraft that was flying a well traveled route, attributed to pro-Russian forces in The Ukraine, pretty much set the present stage for this latest threat to the rest of the world. Russia's posturing has a lot more weight to it, than when the North Koreans threaten to vaporize us every other month, with their unknown nuclear capabilities; if they have any at all. We're pretty sure Russia has a full compliment of what they would need to back-up a nuclear threat. We have been hoping for a peaceful resolve to the crisis in The Ukraine, but we certainly must appreciate at the same time, almost a year since the debacle began, following the Olympics, that Russia is most definitely feeling the squeeze, being cornered and hurt by sanctions; and European condemnation and isolation, because of their role in The Ukraine, and the sinking oil dollar, is a sort of last big straw, to a crumbling economy. And a weakening government trying to figure out how to mitigate the damage done, by poorly thought-out and misspent aggression.. What options are left for the Russian Government today? Remove their influences from The Crimea, The Ukraine, and return to that sensibly proportioned mission, to strengthen their nation without resorting to Cold War legacies, that failed the first time around, to forcefully relieve any other country of its resources. It's all very sad for the people of Russia, because I don't believe for a moment, that they wish to have this governmental stance, against the rest of the world. To my knowledge of world news, as of this very moment, actually listening to the latest reports from this area of the world, NATO hasn't invaded Russia yet, and won't, so what's going on here; another ridiculous ruse, concocted by the government, to get allied forces to react to provocation; like when Russian planes frequently buzz warships in the Black Sea, which has happened on numerous occasions? Have you ever wondered who will fire the first shot, in this stand-off, that will be heard and felt around the world? Just imagine the discipline required to be the Captain of one of these battleships? World peace may well depend on their patience to live with these fighter jet incursions. I know we'd all like to start the New Year with great anticipation for peace on earth, and a prosperous way of living for the coming 12 months, but honestly, it's pretty hard to dismiss a nuclear threat from a country that actually has a stock pile at their beck and call. Sure it's happened before. And it scared us pretty bad; enough to build fall-out shelters, as if they would have done any good during an all-out nuclear conflict.
Like everyone else who hates oil and gas companies, I am delighted by the falling price of fuel at the pumps. It is saving most of us, who travel a lot of miles in a month, a significant amount of cash; and that has a lot of positives attached, don't you think? I don't own mutual funds, where I would undoubtedly be exposed to some oil investments, and I don't play the stock markets even as a hobby recreation. I only buy lottery tickets, as part of a family initiative, about three times a year, mostly as a lark when the main prize hits a ridiculously high level. I know enough national and international history, to recognize just how much damage, at present, will be generated by a continuing drop in the prices for oil. We are screwed by high prices, and we're going to be screwed in yet-to-be-determined ways, by a serious drop in value. Us average folk, who only have a cursory knowledge of what stresses the national economy can handle, or can't sustain in a international crisis, have to listen carefully to experts in the field; those who can point us in the right direction according to what might happen as a downward trend for the rest of the winter. We might be basking now, here in the snowless north, but when we think about traveling south, to the United States, with a dropping dollar, the basking won't be as cheap as it was a couple of years ago, when the dollar was high flying. We are pleased by the gas prices, being below a buck a litre, until we hear news about friends and relatives, who have been laid off from oil related jobs, in Western Canada. There are disadvantages to lesser fuel costs and a lower dollar that can help regions like ours, dependent on tourism. This potential boon, could be a bust, if the national economy suffers a set-back, because it will impact us generally despite one sector doing well.
With high gas prices, of the past couple of years especially, we saw a substantial decrease in day travelers, who tour regularly in quest of antiques and collectables. First of all, in the past two years, there have been far fewer antique dealers visiting our Gravenhurst shop, which is a warning sign, because dealers support dealers; and they get profession discounts on their purchases. Those collectors and antique lovers who travel extensively to pursue their interests in this field, have been scarce this year, and it could be a troubling trend. We're hoping it will be improved by lower gas prices. We also anticipate, that the combination of a lower dollar and less cost for fuel, will inspire more of our Americian friends to return to Muskoka. At one time, our American customers represented upwards of fifteen percent of our business every year, and today, it wouldn't even be one percent of our sales. Muskoka's seasonal economy was hugely boosted by visiting and cottaging Americans, going well back in the history of local tourism. So having a lower dollar, and greatly reduced gas prices, at the pumps, may help build-back this important part of the tourist economy. This could be a nice silver lining, but we still have to wait to see what's coming up, or down, with oil pricing in the next few months. We're either going to have an amazing business year in a boom environment, or go kaboom in a bust.
Muskoka isn't likely to be hugely or even directly impacted by a slump in oil prices. But we aren't immune anywhere in this country, to a provincial or national economic slump, that may result in lost of jobs and regional investment. Even the experts seem to be befuddled by this latest devaluation, brought on, in part, by OPEC's oil production status quo, which of course, has produced a glut of resources, bringing down the price per barrel on the open market. How far are they prepared to let oil drop, before limiting supply? At this point, well sir, I am going to take advantage of present gas prices, and try to smile about the possibilities for the new year. Add these uncertainties to Russia's recent and rather bizarre Manifesto, and I guess there isn't any other way to welcome 2015, other than to be chipper, take advantages while you can, and invest carefully. As for digging a fall-out shelter? Let's just say, if an optimist like me, starts digging a hole in my backyard, and I post it for your information, then you will think me either "Mad as a Hatter," or being totally ridiculous, thinking I can save my family from the utter widespread devastation, of a nuclear war imposed upon us. Truth is, I suppose to the positive side, I confess that I haven't lost even a wink of sleep, worrying about a warhead dropping on my head. It's one of those things of age possibly, that I've heard and read about this sabre-rattling stuff a thousand times before; so many times in fact, each with its desensitizing influence, that it seems somewhat surprising in retrospect, that I'm still here to opine, about yet another round of "Go ahead I dare you," and "Our big guns are bigger than your big guns," from the super powers of the world. Most of us have learned by now, to just live our lives the best we can, under whatever circumstances we find ourselves immersed; and smile about it or not, we most often get to the next morning, thankful to meet another beautiful sunrise, even on the cloudy days. Heck, there's too much to be happy about, to get all weird about nuclear war. Afterall, I grew up with the point-counter point of, "if you blow us up, we'll blow you up," which has in many unfortunate ways, guaranteed no super power wants to take the first shot against the other. Hope it holds up for another year.
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