ECONOMIC CALAMITY? IS GRAVENHURST READY FOR NEW NORMAL
OR WILL CITIZENS LEAD OUT OF NECESSITY?
LIKE THE ACTOR WHO MISTAKENLY UTTERS THE NAME, "MACBETH," THUSLY INCURRING A CURSE, NO ONE IN THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY ON THIS PLANET, WANTS TO HEAR, "RUN ON THE BANK." WHEN THEY DO HEAR IT, THEY HOPE TO GOD IT'S ONLY SOMEONE WATCHING "IT'S A WONDERFUL LIFE," WITH THE VOLUME TURNED WAY UP. THERE WAS A "RUN ON THE BANK" IN THAT STORY, AND IT VERY NEARLY ENDED IN A SUICIDE FOR THE MAIN CHARACTER, PLAYED BY JIMMY STEWART.
FOR OUR ELDERS, WHO KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS, FROM THE EARLY DAYS OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION, OR HEARD THE STORIES FROM THEIR PARENTS, OF WEALTH LIQUIDATED WITHIN HOURS, LEARNING ABOUT MODERN DAY "RUNS ON THE BANK," MUST SEND A CHILL THROUGH THE BODY. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING IN GREECE RECENTLY, ACCELERATING ALMOST EVERY DAY. FRIGHTENED CUSTOMERS, STUFFING EUROS INTO MATTRESSES OR DUMPING THE CURRENCY ALTOGETHER, FOR AMERICAN DOLLARS. SHOULD WE BE SCARED BY SOMETHING HAPPENING A LONG PLANE-RIDE AWAY? I DON'T KNOW ABOUT WORRY, BUT THE "EYES WIDE OPEN" THING MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE, AT THIS TIME OF PRECARIOUS ECONOMIC FRAILTY.
"TOBACCO ROAD." "THE GRAPES OF WRATH." POST DEPRESSION STORIES OF HARDSHIP AND SUFFERING, IN THE UNITED STATES. OUT OF ONE HUNDRED RANDOMLY SELECTED PEOPLE, IN THIS COUNTRY, YOU'D BE LUCKY TO FIND ONE PERSON WHO HAD SEEN THE MOVIE-VERSIONS, LET ALONE HAVING READ THE STORIES. QUITE A FEW MORE WILL HAVE WATCHED CHARLES DICKENS, "A CHRISTMAS CAROL," TO ANSWER AFFIRMATIVELY, IF QUESTIONED ABOUT EBENEZER SCROOGE….."YEA, I'VE HEARD OF HIM. HE WAS A REAL DINK." I WOULD DOUBT VERY MUCH IF THEY HAD READ THE BOOK, BUT BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN A CHRISTMAS SEASON STANDARD, FOR DECADES, THERE'S MORE LIKELIHOOD THEY'VE VIEWED IT, SOME TIME DURING THE FESTIVE-SEASON. DURING THE MONEY CULTIVATING, ADVERTISEMENT LADEN, TELEVISION COUNT-DOWN TO DECEMBER 25TH. YOU KNOW, THERE ARE SOME GOOD MORAL AND ECONOMIC POINTS IN THESE STORIES, THAT ALTHOUGH ANTIQUATED, ARE CERTAINLY RELEVANT ENOUGH, TO CONTEMPORARY ISSUES, TO LEARN FROM. LEARN WHAT? THAT POVERTY IS AS HALE AND HARDY AS EVER, AND SUFFERING IS STILL BEING ENDURED, WHILE OUR GOVERNMENT DENIES WHAT IT HAS TO DENY, TO CONVINCE US "ALL IS WELL IN OZ." DAMN THING IS, A LOT OF FOLKS BELIEVE THEM. I'VE GOT TO THE POINT NOW, OF BELIEVING THE OPPOSITE TO HOLD TRUE. IF THEY DENY THERE ARE HUNGRY PEOPLE IN THIS COUNTRY, THERE MUST BE MILLIONS. IF THEY SAY WE'RE DOING WELL ECONOMICALLY, HOLY CHRIST, WE'RE IN TROUBLE. IF THEY SAY IT DIDN'T HAPPEN, OF COURSE IT DID. SHOULD WE EXPECT THEM TO WORRY ABOUT THOSE IN FULL BLOWN ECONOMIC CRISIS? THEY WON'T LOSE ANY SLEEP, BECAUSE IN THEIR DELUSIONAL WORLD, THERE AREN'T ANY PROBLEMS. JUST INCONVENIENCES. AND REPORTERS.
THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS IN THE EURO-ZONE, GREECE SPECIFICALLY, AND THE DRAG OF THE RECENT RECESSION IN NORTH AMERICA, ESPECIALLY ON THE UNITED STATES, HAS INSPIRED SOME HISTORIANS AND ECONOMISTS, TO ISSUE PREDICTIONS ABOUT INCREASING WOES TO COME. I AM NOT AN INTERNATIONALLY ASTUTE HISTORIAN, AND I'M AS FAR FROM AN ECONOMIST AS YOU CAT GET. BUT I'M ONE OF THOSE REGIONAL HISTORIANS, WHO APPRECIATES HOW WORLD EVENTS, HAVE SHAPED OUR LOCAL COMMUNITIES OVER THE CENTURIES. HOW POLICIES, INITIATIVES, WAR AND DEPRESSION, HAVE HIT US HARD, EVEN HERE IN THE HINTERLAND OF ONTARIO. YET IF YOU WERE TO ASK ONE HUNDRED LOCAL CITIZENS, HOW THE FIRST WORLD WAR IMPACTED MUSKOKA, I THINK IT WOULD BE AMAZING TO FIND EVEN ONE PERSON, WHO COULD OFFER ANYTHING MORE THAN A WEAK NATIONAL OR INTERNATIONAL OVERVIEW. SAME WITH THE DEPRESSION AND THE SECOND WORLD WAR. SHOULD WE EXPECT THEM TO KNOW? IS IT IMPORTANT TO KNOW? HOW IS IT RELEVANT TO AN AVERAGE DAY IN GRAVENHURST? WHY SHOULD WE BE REMOTELY INTERESTED IN A FICTIONAL STORY LIKE "TOBACCO ROAD," OR THE NEAR-STARVATION OF THE JOAD FAMILY, IN "GRAPES OF WRATH?" WHAT GOOD IS IT TO LIVE IN THE PAST?
THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THIS HISTORY, OF OUR COMMUNITY, IS THAT WHEN THE NEED WAS GREATEST, AND THE THREAT TO OUR HOME WAS AT ITS PEAK, OUR CITIZENS RALLIED TOGETHER TO ASSIST ONE ANOTHER……TO WORK ON BEHALF OF THE WAR EFFORT…..TO MEET TOGETHER, AND KNIT SOCKS, MITTS, SWEATERS, AND HATS. FOLKS KNEW WHEN A NEIGHBOR WAS IN PERIL, AND WHEN A FAMILY RECEIVED THE DEVASTATING NEWS, A SON OR FATHER HAD BEEN KILLED IN ACTION. WORLD EVENTS BROUGHT COMMUNITIES CLOSER. IF THEY'D HAD TO DEFEND THEIR COMMUNITY AGAINST THE HUN, THEY'D HAVE BATTLED WITH SHOVELS AND AXES, TO THE LAST MAN AND WOMAN, IN ORDER TO DEFEND THEIR HOMES…..AND THEIR FREEDOM. WILL THIS HAPPEN AGAIN? WHEN WE HAVE A WORLD CRISIS, THAT DEMANDS WE COME TOGETHER, AS A UNIT, A BATTALION, FOR THE COMMON GOOD? WILL OUR TOWN COUNCILLORS REACT, AND LEAD, AND INSPIRE THE CITIZENRY? WILL THEY CARRY THE FLAG, AND NEVER LET IT HIT THE GROUND? IT WILL BE THEIR TASK. IT'S WHAT WE EXPECT OF THEM. TO LEAD BY EXAMPLE.
The historian understands that history won't repeat exactly, yet, philosophically, in discussion, they might also nod, with an acknowledgement, it can and does repeat pretty close. With the recent run on the banks, in Greece, bagging up the Euros, in case the country leaves the European Union, the historically inclined, might offer the suggestion, based on precedents of the past, that the worse is yet to come. I know very few historians who over-react. They're usually pretty calm characters, and know the perils of making predictions. Historians like to mull over their facts and diverse opinions, before offering any sage advice about what might be coming down the tracks, and how to react to new realities onboard, whatever it is, just about to round the corner. I imagine there are a lot of historians in Europe, deeply troubled by the growing strength and numbers of radical parties, and (Neo-Nazi) rogue candidates, gaining the trust of the electorate, whether in France, England, Holland or Greece, who advocate a non-immigration policy. It should make us all nervous about what can happen, during periods of economic calamity. There's a potential for many more extremist candidates, and rogue parties getting solid footholds on governments throughout Europe. At a time when there is such high unemployment, in countries like Spain and Greece, historians can draw many precedents of the past, to color in the potential of a disaster unfolding. As for economic disaster, it's hard to see how this is going to work out well, for all countries involved in the Euro. The unrest and civil disobedience in Greece, as an example, should enlighten us to what can occur under the right circumstances, at the opportune moment. The radical element feeds on this failing of the economy, and weakness of government. It had a lot to do with the World Wars we've so carefully and precisely documented in rows and rows of history texts. Economic disparity is the fuel of conflict.
I just finished my lunch-break, listening to the afternoon news, and watched with great interest, a video clip regarding the civil disobedience in Quebec, by students protesting the government's proposed tuition fee increases. For the length of time it has gone on, over the past few months, and the huge amount of property damage, and cost to the taxpayer, of committing riot police to quell the protests, it does seem pretty historic in this country, when compared to other major revolts against government policy in the past. Again, the historians may be looking at this, as a pretty serious warning sign, that this is going to be a future trend. In company with the other economic protests around the globe, from last fall, and all those riots still going on, at this moment, in many countries around the world, we history-loving folks can't help but feel a little uncomfortable about the dangerous signs appearing. Anarchy is becoming a huge concern, and change-through-protest, is being replaced by change-necessitated-by-violence. With all the hot spots on this planet, and the political and economic upheaval, on top of way to many warheads, I can't help thinking it might be a good time, to start refreshing ourselves, about the stories of history we have side-stepped as being irrelevant.
As I happen to live in a quiet little town, in the District of Muskoka, a fair clip from the economic problems in Europe, and I won't be inconvenienced this afternoon, when I go to the High School to pick up my wife, and I know there won't be any protesters to bust through, in order to get our daily groceries, admittedly we have no pressing reason to start wearing body armor. If however, you truly appreciate how the global economy works, and how vulnerable we can be under the right circumstances, then it does warrant a more cautious approach to investment internationally, and in a stock market that could bottom-out, based on an event halfway around the world. In an economic sense, we are a lot closer to Greece these days, than what geographical distances show. With Canadians so debt-burdened, and our levels of government already practicing austerity measures, to save the treasury, there's a distant rumbling that we really should pick up on, if we want to be prepared……. for the arrival of what we don't want! It's for darn sure, we have little if no control, except to put into place, a survival strategy…..and read a couple of good books about poverty, and the struggle of the poor for food and shelter. There is so much personal debt, that out-running an economic tsunami isn't possible. Having been in deep debt several times myself, I know how incredibly difficult it was to extricate our family from the cusp of debtor's prison. When you can't sell your house, and you're broke, well, you're screwed.
I have talked to people recently, who have mortgages of well over two hundred thousand dollars. We only have a couple of years to go on our mortgage, and we only borrowed $105,000. Even that took years off my life, especially when we had unexpected interest rate hikes, that no one had predicted. When I think of these poor bastards today, who thought it was a great idea, to buy a hugely expensive home, with very little down, gads, they should be watching the Euro-zone, so they know the precise time to kiss their bums goodbye. It can be said, they have been warned. I've heard the warning many times, in the past year, and from what I see out there and hear, about home sales, the excesses, and real estate gambling are as bad if not worse. I'd like to know, as a useful statistic, how many families were broken up during the recession of the 1990's, when home prices plummeted over numerous years. I'd like to know the number of suicides that were directly proportional to economic collapse, and personal bankruptcies and foreclosures. In United States, it would be worth knowing, the suicide rate in the past five years, of their economic turmoil and housing industry collapse. It is important. It is the personal tragedy connected to economic depression. Like the elder Greek gentleman, who had lost everything he owned, killing himself in a public space, to draw attention to the suffering of the population, caught in the government and bank mismanagement of financial resources.
In Gravenhurst, it seems as if we are a million miles away from the catastrophe of economic calamity. Most councillors today, wouldn't believe such a dire circumstance could manifest in our community. That there would be such tragic economic conditions, in the future, that people would actually kill themselves, because their homes or businesses have been compromised by a prevailing downturn. If you had statistics, however, would you be surprised to find out that folks entertain thoughts of suicide daily, in this town, because they are in, what they perceive, an abyss of debt and family crisis as a result? Two acquaintances this year, who had serious financial burdens, and no prospects, took their own lives. Yet many would say, well, it was because of depression. In their cases, it was depression about money, and the lack of! During the last recession, I remember a fellow businessman we knew, who was as chipper, and neighborly right to the end. He couldn't face his creditors, or having to declare bankruptcy, and decided it was better to end his life. We would be dangerously naive, to disbelieve that many other lives have been lost due to economic pressures. My great fear, is that with the huge burden on young people in particular, that when interest rates begin to rise, and volatility becomes characteristic of the economy, the pressures will become too much for those with little experience, how to cope with the dark side of owing too much, to too many creditors. "They should have known better?" It would be hard to deny that this is true. Humanity should prevail, regardless, and we will all inevitably, one day, know of someone in this precarious situation, trying to figure out the meaning of life…….asking for our help, to assure them, there is a better way than suicide.
While Gravenhurst Council may believe it is humming along, being quite proud of its recent accomplishments toward good governance, and the release of their new handy-dandy resource booklet, "all you need to know about Gravenhurst in 37 pages," I think they should stop the internal praise, long enough to examine the world stage, of which they are a part. It really doesn't matter if they believe the problems in Greece will affect us here, or if they ever solve the student protests in Quebec, because like a tsunami, you don't stop its momentum, by putting up your hand and scowling. We already have a pretty fair client-load on social assistance, and the use of the food bank is still quite brisk, plus the new Omnibus Bill, and the unemployment insurance revisions, make us vulnerable day to day……..on a good day. So when it seems like all the bad stuff is out of the way, and all the information is "managed," councillors, just for the hell of it, might want to start reading-up on what kinds of seriously confounding problems, are headed our way. Maybe reading a few books might be a good place to start. Just to get in the mood, of what is already going on, in a lot of households in our town……believe it or not. There are hungry kids, hungry adults, seniors, and pets. There are folks who can't pay their rent, their mortgages, their store rents, and who have little left over to pay taxes, utilities, and then have enough to buy a bag of groceries. If someone said, "well, if this is true, and you're not making it up, then we're sitting on top of a powder keg." I would answer, and "Greece has the match."
Before the end of this week, I will hear at least two news or feature news stories, about the real estate industry in Canada, and that there isn't "a bubble" crisis anywhere on the horizon. I mumble gruffly to myself, every time I hear the vested interest, prognosticating these situations, and how much we all believed similar spokespeople in 1989…….when what was thought to be a pimple, was actually a globe. When you hear about real estate bubbles, and how we won't be having one, be suspicious and very proactive. The last bubble was deadly. I know it for fact.
Our Town is not immune from the wicked ride of the world economy, and what goes up, always comes down. We are full of glee on the way up, not so much on the way down.
Thanks so much for joining today's blog. Please come again soon.
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